Arya News - Bitcoin’s hovering in the low $90,000 after its gut-wrenching volatility of the past 10 weeks is making investors wonder if there’ll be an imminent return to $100,000 or a new bear run to below $80,000, veteran markets analyst Adam Sarhan said Thursday.
"The question on everyone’s mind is whether the pullback we had earlier is typical of the 30–35% drawdown you’d see in a longer-term uptrend,” Sarhan, the founder of New York-based Sarhan Capital, told Sputnik. “This low $90,000s could be Bitcoin’s new normal for a while as it consolidates to push again towards the $100,000 range. Or it could be a new bear trap that takes it to under $80,000.” Once the darling of speculators as it went from a few cents worth to five-digit pricing, Bitcoin has increasingly gone mainstream over the years, drawing some of the savviest investors and institutional funds. Its break above $100,000 for the first time in December 2024 and latest record high above $126,000 in October were champagne-popping moments. But its tumble to $80,000 in mid-November and volatility in trying to secure a foothold in the $90,000s has vexed the patience of some of the crypto space’s most faithful. A myriad of factors have been cited for Bitcoin’s collapse in the past two-and-a-half months, including shifting US macroeconomic temperatures and the November AI-driven selloff on Wall Street that appeared to be a catalyst for widespread liquidation in the crypto universe. These, in turn, have prodded Bitcoin “whales", or large holders of the coin, to sell as well, exacerbating the plunge. Sarhan’s analysis shows that Bitcoin needs to move up to and stay above critical long-term moving averages, such as the 50-Day and 200-Day Moving Averages — currently reported around the high $90,000s and low $100,000s, respectively. A “Golden Cross” — where the 50-Day Moving Average crosses above the 200-Day Moving Average on a higher time frame — would be a major bullish signal. In reverse, a critical bear market would push Bitcoin to $74,000 and under $70,000. This zone often aligns with the 200-Week Exponential Moving Average or the lows of a previous cycle"s deep correction. A decisive break and sustained trading below this level would confirm a deep, prolonged bear market phase, potentially targeting the low $60,000s or lower.