Arya News - Exports slipped to US$24.24 billion in October, down 2.31 percent year-on-year (yoy), weighed heavily by a steep 33.6 percent plunge in oil and gas shipments.
JAKARTA – Indonesia extended its trade surplus in October despite a slowdown in exports amid declining oil and gas shipments.
Statistics Indonesia (BPS) deputy for distribution and services Pudji Ismartini said in a press conference on Monday that the country posted a trade surplus of US$2.39 billion in October, marking the 66th consecutive monthly surplus since May 2020. However, the figure was down from the $4.34 billion surplus recorded in September.
The October surplus was largely supported by non-oil and gas commodities, particularly crude palm oil, coal, iron and steel.
In contrast, the oil and gas sector booked a $1.92 billion deficit, weighed down mainly by crude oil and oil products.
“Cumulatively, the January-October period recorded a surplus of $35.88 billion. This surplus was supported by a $51.51 billion surplus in the non-oil and gas sector, while oil and gas remained in deficit at $15.63 billion,” Pudji said.
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Exports slowed in October to $24.24 billion, down 2.31 percent year-on-year (yoy). Pudji said the drop was largely driven by a 33.6 percent decline in oil and gas exports, while non-oil and gas exports also fell by 0.51 percent.
Crude oil exports plunged 54.86 percent, followed by steep declines of 40.11 percent in oil products and 26.2 percent in gas.
In the non-oil and gas sector, the mining industry saw the sharpest drop, with export value falling 30.92 percent. Mineral fuel commodity groups, mainly coal, saw the biggest yoy decline at 19.04 percent.
As of October, cumulative exports reached $234 billion, up 6.96 percent yoy. The strongest growth came from the manufacturing sector, which contributed $187.82 billion, up 15.75 percent, followed by agriculture, forestry and fisheries.
Imports also slowed in October, falling 1.15 percent yoy to $21.84 billion, mainly because of a 23.32 percent drop in oil and gas imports.
Non-oil and gas imports grew 3.26 percent, though vehicles, iron and steel, and organic chemicals recorded significant declines of 17.7 percent, 14.7 percent and 10.3 percent, respectively.
Indonesia’s largest surplus contributors included the United States at $14.93 billion, followed by India at $11.29 billion and the Philippines at $7.18 billion. Indonesia is still in talks with the US regarding the so-called “reciprocal” tariffs, which Washington linked to Indonesia’s sizable trade surplus.
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Bank Permata chief economist Josua Pardede wrote in an analysis on Monday that the contraction in exports indicated “ongoing normalization following the implementation of reciprocal tariffs.”
He noted that the contraction aligned with weaker import demand from China amid its softening domestic economy, continued normalization after the reciprocal tariffs imposed in August and lower government export-duty revenues as reflected in the October state budget realization.
He added that the weaker annual import performance was partly caused by a high base in the previous year, noting that imports had increased by around 7.4 percent on a monthly basis amid stronger domestic manufacturing activity.
Indonesia’s Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rose to 53.3 in November, according to a monthly survey published by S&P Global on Monday. It was the highest level recorded since February and marked the fourth consecutive month in which the index remained above the 50-point threshold between expansion and contraction.